Sophie Galloway, 16, of Midway Point, covers up from the sun at Salamanca. Picture: RICHARD JUPE
TASMANIANS could be in for a reality check this summer after two years of mild conditions.
The state's weather has dried off in the past month, with rainfalls as low as 6.6mm in Devonport and 11.4mm in Launceston.
Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Lorien Martin said there was a 60 to 75 per cent chance that maximum daytime temperatures would be warmer than normal from December until February.
Property owners have been advised to pay extra attention to bushfire plans and water supply for coping with potential hazards.
Conditions are expected to worsen as summer wears on.
Despite this, the Tasmania Fire Service's best guidance has so far suggested near-normal summer dryness, with only a 50 per cent chance of lower-than-normal rainfall.
For rural and regional Tasmanians, who might have been lulled by abnormally lush landscapes in recent springs and summers, a normal season might come as a shock.
Ms Martin said the southern oscillation index, which formed the basis for typically dry El Nino, or typically wet La Nina forecasts, was close to neutral and had little bearing on this summer's climate forecast.
Winter was drier than normal in most parts of Tasmania, particularly in July, but Autumn rainfalls were above average across much of the state, and September was wetter than normal in most areas, especially Hobart, with 68mm.
TFS chief officer Mike Brown said this month's analysis suggested the state was likely to experience a normal fire season but there was potential for large fires through to late summer, with some total fire bans likely in hot, dry and windy weather.
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